On this page

The short answer

NESA uses your school assessment rank and the gaps between students when it moderates assessment marks using your cohort's HSC exam performance. For most examined courses, your reported HSC mark averages your assessment and exam marks. UAC separately scales raw HSC marks, not the aligned marks on your results notice, and uses your best two eligible English units plus your next best eight eligible units for your ATAR.

The process from rank to ATAR

Two different results. Two different processes.

Your reported HSC mark

Reported assessment mark + reported exam mark

HSC markUsually their average for an examined course.

Your ATAR

Raw HSC marks → UAC scaling → best eligible 10 units

ATARA rank, not your average reported mark.

UAC does not simply scale the aligned HSC marks printed on your results notice.

  1. Your school submits assessment marks.These establish the rank order and relative gaps in each course.
  2. NESA moderates the assessment marks.Your cohort's exam performance sets the scale while preserving the school rank order and relative gaps.
  3. Your HSC mark is calculated.For most examined courses, your reported HSC mark is the average of your reported exam and assessment marks. Courses such as VET examination courses have different arrangements.
  4. UAC scales eligible marks.UAC uses raw HSC marks supplied by NESA, before alignment, to put eligible course results on a common scale. Published HSC marks are not an exact lookup for scaled marks.
  5. Your ATAR is ranked.Your best two units of English and your next best eight eligible units are used, subject to UAC eligibility rules. The ATAR is a rank, not a mark.

Read the full explanation of assessment moderation, then see why raw, aligned and scaled marks are not interchangeable.

What your rank does and does not tell you

A rank of 5 out of 40 does not mean an HSC mark of 87.5. The same rank can lead to different results at different schools and in different years because cohort exam performance and the gaps between students differ. Rank is useful evidence, but it is not enough to know the final result exactly.

As a hypothetical comparison, rank 5 of 40 and rank 5 of 100 each mean four students are above you, but they describe different positions within the group. Neither means you scored a particular percentage. Even rank 5 of 40 at two schools can imply different outcomes because the course groups and mark gaps differ.

For the next step, see which 10 eligible units count towards the ATAR.

How ATAR Forecast uses that information

ATAR Forecast compares your school, course rank and cohort size with historical school course results. It estimates a mark range first, then applies historical UAC scaling scenarios. The result is an experimental range, not an official calculation or a guaranteed outcome.

Sources and editorial notes

Founder of ATAR Forecast. These guides explain school ranks, HSC results and the assumptions behind the forecasting tool, with links to NESA and UAC sources. These guides explain the process; NESA and UAC remain the official authorities.

Spotted an error? Send a correction.

Put your ranks
in perspective.

Use your school, subject ranks and cohort sizes to build an ATAR planning range.

Build my forecast

Sign in to save and compare your forecasts.

An experimental estimate, not an official ATAR calculation.