NSW HSC EXPLAINED

Understand what sits behind an ATAR forecast.

Plain English guides to school ranks, moderation, HSC marks, scaling and the limits of prediction.

FOUNDATION GUIDEHow your HSC ranks affect your final marks and ATARFollow the full path from school assessment rank to ATAR.Read guide →BEFORE THE HSCWhy most ATAR calculators are useless before the HSCA normal ATAR calculator needs HSC marks you do not have yet. Learn what it can and cannot tell you before the final exams.Read guide →TRIALS AND SCALINGYour trial mark is not the number UAC scalesTrial marks are school results. UAC calculates the ATAR from scaled marks derived from HSC results, not the percentage printed on your trial paper.Read guide →SCHOOL CONTEXTRank 10 at two different schools can mean very different thingsThe same rank can sit inside very different cohort sizes, mark distributions and HSC exam performances.Read guide →RANK BASED FORECASTINGYou do not need to guess your HSC marks anymoreStart with your observed school ranks, then estimate a range of possible HSC marks before applying historical scaling.Read guide →READING YOUR RANKSWhat your current school ranks might mean for your ATARSchool ranks can inform an ATAR range, but they do not determine a final mark on their own.Read guide →FALSE PRECISIONWhy entering an expected mark into an ATAR calculator is circularIf the hardest part is estimating your HSC marks, a calculator that asks you to supply those marks has not solved the prediction problem.Read guide →MODEL LIMITSThree reasons your predicted ATAR could be wrongA forecast can miss because your cohort changes, your exam performance changes, or historical scaling changes.Read guide →