1. This year is not a repeat of a historical year
A school course group can become stronger or weaker. Subject enrolments, teachers and the gaps between ranks can change. Historical school outcomes provide context, but they cannot observe the exact strength of the current cohort.
2. Your exam performance can move
Your internal rank helps shape the moderated assessment side of the HSC result. Your own HSC exam mark is separate and can be above or below what the internal rank suggests. Illness, improvement, exam technique and the paper itself all matter.
3. Scaling changes each year
UAC scales courses using the performance of the students taking them in that year. Historical scaling is useful for scenarios, but the future scaling distribution is unknown until the cohort’s marks are available.
How to use a prediction responsibly
Prioritise the range, check the evidence confidence and update your ranks as new assessments arrive. ATAR Forecast is a beta planning tool and has not yet been validated for individual accuracy, particularly at the top of the ATAR scale.
Official sources
NESA: How school assessment marks are moderated
Turn your ranks into a planning range
Compare your school, course ranks and cohort sizes with five historical scenarios. The result is a beta estimate, not an official ATAR calculation.
Forecast my ATAR